A few days ago, I stumbled upon distressing war footage captured by a Russian soldier’s body camera on the battlefields of Ukraine. This three-minute video depicted a Russian soldier rushing into a foxhole where two Ukrainian soldiers sought refuge. Following a brief exchange of words, the Russian soldier emptied his entire rifle into the two Ukrainian soldiers before moving on to the next foxhole.
As I watched the video, the faces of the deceased Ukrainians became painfully clear. These Ukrainians appeared to be elderly men, visibly battered and wearing uniforms that suggested they were likely territorial troops conscripted from their local communities. The footage left me deeply disturbed and cast a shadow of sadness over my entire day. It served as a stark reminder of the horrors of war and the profound impact it has on families and individual lives.
In the current geopolitical landscape, there is another potential hotspot: the Taiwan Strait. As a Chinese person, I couldn’t help but imagine the grim possibility of a conflict erupting in the Taiwan Strait. The thought of witnessing video footage of Chinese people engaged in conflict within these waters is a harrowing prospect. The toll such a war would take on the Chinese-speaking community is a distressing thought that weighs heavily on my mind.
Precedence for Peace: The Ma Ying Jeou Administration (2008–2016)
I have been studying the Taiwan Straits issue for many years. I strongly believe that peace is possible in this region, given the chance. There is already a huge precedent for peace. Peace, not just the idea, but in practice, was already clearly demonstrated during the leadership of Ma Ying Jeou (2008 — 2016) when the three links of mail services, transportation, and trade were fully opened up between the two sides.
The thaw which resulted in the relations between Beijing and Taipei resulted in such a high degree of trust that Ma Ying Jeou did not even bother to attend the annual Taiwan Han Kuang military exercises in 2010. In the following years, the live fire portion of the military exercises was also downsized and the abolishment of military conscription, which has always been unpopular in Taiwanese society, was also nearly achieved. On the other hand, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army did not conduct routine aviation or naval drills, and respected the so-called unofficial “middle line” in the Taiwan straits during this time.
On the economic front, the thaw of relations meant that Taiwanese business people found it easier to access the Chinese mainland market — the largest in the world, and make their riches. The tourism industry in Taiwan boomed with the influx of large numbers of Mainland Chinese tourists. In just one year in 2009, over 70,000 jobs in the tourism industry were created in Taiwan and Taiwan’s economy reached a record growth at 10%. The culmination of the Ma administration’s achievements was the Ma-Xi meeting in Singapore, which took place in 2015. This meeting was the first between the sitting political leaders of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait since 1945.
The bedrock foundation of Ma Ying Jeou’s approach towards the Chinese Mainland was his adherence to the 1992 Consensus — that is the idea that Taiwan is part of China, there is only one “China’, but the definition of China can be interpreted by the authorities in Beijing or Taipei differently. Ma Ying Jeou also promoted the so-called “Three Noes” of no war, no Taiwanese independence, and no immediate unification. The stance of Ma Ying Jeou was acceptable to the Beijing side.
Dark Clouds Are Gathering Once Again
Today in 2023, the peaceful era of the Ma Ying Jeou administration is all but a distant dream. War clouds are once again gathering over the Taiwan Straits.
I am firm in my belief that the greatest threat to peace in the Taiwan Straits is the ruling Taiwan political party — The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). While the United States is locked in a geopolitical struggle with Mainland China, the DPP is willingly working under the direction of Washington as a pawn to create a hostile environment in the Taiwan Straits for their own political power on the island.
Since Tsai Ing-Wen (DPP) took political office in Taiwan, she has refused to fully accept the 1992 Consensus. This has resulted in a breakdown of communication and trade on the two sides of the straits. Further tensions from 2016 to 2020 have resulted in the remilitarization of the Taiwan Straits. The People’s Liberation Army of China has since conducted hundreds of aviation and naval drills, while the armed forces of Taiwan have reintroduced conscription and enlarged military exercises of their own.
This political game is dangerous and is likely to result in a war if the course is not changed.
Elderly Military Combat Veterans in Taiwan Choose Peace, Oppose War
In 1949, as the Chinese Communists assumed power in the mainland, approximately half a million Chinese Nationalist soldiers, led by Chiang Kai Shek, sought refuge in Taiwan. The majority of these rank-and-file Nationalist soldiers were forcibly separated from their families and loved ones back in their hometowns. Over the subsequent three decades, there was a strict prohibition on transportation, communication, and mail services between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. From 1950 to 1979, this strait remained a volatile region where frequent artillery exchanges and gunfire occurred between the opposing forces.
During this period, Taiwanese society underwent full militarization in anticipation of a potential World War 3, which they believed might involve a counterattack on the Chinese mainland. On the offshore island of Kinmen, roughly a quarter of a million Taiwanese troops were stationed in preparation for the counterattack which never came.
With the gradual return of peace and the normalization of relations in the Taiwan straits starting in 1979, many veterans from Taiwan were finally able to reunite with their families in the Chinese mainland. The restoration of mail, transit, communications, and other connections brought relief and hope.
Having experienced the stark contrast between the eras of war and peace, the majority of elderly Taiwanese military veterans ultimately support the path of peace.
The 104-year-old retired Taiwan General Xu Linong (許歷農) is currently the most famous peace advocate on the island. Xu was born in 1919 and joined the army to participate in the Second World War against the Japanese. In 1949, he retreated to Taiwan with the Nationalists.
In 1958, Xu Linong was a Colonel stationed in Kinmen when the 823 Kinmen Artillery Battle broke out. Xu recalled that during the opening shots of the battle, on the evening of August 23 and 24, the Communists fired a total of 57,000 shells into Kinmen, killing Deputy Commander, General Zhao Jiaxiang (趙家驤), Air force General Zhang Jie (章傑), and General Ji Xingwen (吉星文 ). Hu Lian (胡璉).
Xu Linong wrote that Ji Xingwen was a personal friend and that he had planned to go on a walk together with Ji on the day after he was killed. “Hearing this sad news was like a thunderbolt from the blue sky. At that time, tears were streaming down my face, and I could not stop crying for a long time.”
During the 823 Battle, Xu Lilong stationed in Queshan, Kinmen, where most of the PLA shells fell. He braved heavy artillery fire and led his troops to build an eight-inch cannon emplacement at a high ground, in order to return fire against the Communists. Xu recalled the story of how he cheated death once, how he was on the telephone at the command post when a PLA shell landed and penetrated into the concrete wall next to him, but failed to explode.
Xu also told the story of how he witnessed and entire family obliterated in Kinmen by artillery fire. These experiences strengthened Xu Linong’s belief in his life that, “War is like a monster, extremely ferocious, without any rationality, and without the slightest bit of humanity which destroys any good in the world. I have seen with my own eyes a farm was reduced to ashes in an instant, and a family was destroyed; a wife and child were separated. The most recent generation of people in Taiwan has never experienced war and has never seen the dangers and horrors of war. There are many people who often provoke the other side, this is extremely dangerous!”
Xu Linong had an illustrious military career following the 823 Artillery Battle. From 1979 to 1981, Xu was promoted to serve as the commander of the Taiwan Sixth Army Corps. Notably, on October 10, 1981, Xu Linong was the parade commander of the Taipei Double Ten celebration parade. From 1981 to 1983, he returned to Kinmen to serve as the overall commander of the Kinmen Garrison. At the end of his career, in the 1990s, Xu was the National Policy Advisor of the Taiwan “Presidential Office” and a member of the “National Assembly.”
Following retirement, in 2014, Xu visited Beijing with a delegation of retired generals and politicians from Taiwan and met with President Xi Jinping.
On September 2, 2017, Xu Linong published an open letter titled “The Truth of the 99-year-old Elderly Man”, explaining why he no longer opposes the Communist Party. Xu declared that he is committed to “promoting reunification.”
The letter pointed out that in the past he fought against Communism because the Communists introduced certain failed policies which destroyed the Chinese culture and liquidated innocent people. But now Xu believes that mainland China has completely abandoned communism, and has explored and found an effective solution for governing the country — Socialism with Chinese characteristics. The letter lists the deeds and achievements of Socialism with Chinese characteristics and believes that today’s thoughts and deeds in mainland China are fully in line with the principles of positive development, and are also beneficial to both sides of the strait. “The reasons for anti-communism in the past have long since disappeared”, declared Xu Linong.
Taiwanese Youth Are Being Taught to Treat War Like A Game Instead of Reflecting on its Implications
In early 2022, it was reported that in Taiwan, many young people were forming clubs and paying money out of their own pockets to “train for war” using airsoft guns. The enthusiasm of the Taiwanese youth to participate in war and the gamification of war by mainstream Taiwanese society is worrying. This is just like a repeat of the themes from the book, All Quiet on the Western Front — Idiotic and naive young people treating war like a game while marching to the battlefield.
Not only is it doubtful that playing an airsoft game has any meaningful military value, but any war involving the Taiwan Straits will also include mass missile and rocket attacks, and the most decisive factors to determine the outcome of the war would probably be decided in the battle space involving the air and sea.
Another disturbing development — On January 12, 2023, the United States agreed to sell Taiwan a mine laying system. This mine-laying system can plant thousands of mines in a very short period of time. This development brings back painful memories of the 1950s and 60s when 80% of Kinmen island’s coastline was covered with landmines. During that time, hundreds of civilians and soldiers lost their limbs in accidents, with generation after generation of residents in Kinmen having to cope with this reality.
War is not a game.
There Are No Losers in Peace
In peace, there are no losers. In peace, both Taiwan and Mainland China can do business, people can make money, people can start families, and honor their parents. In a war, everyone will lose, but Taiwan will be the biggest loser. Regardless of even whether the People’s Liberation Army of China can successfully capture the island or not, even if the Chinese PLA does not make any landing, Taiwan will still take the brunt of the missile and rocket attacks. Inevitably, most of the fighting will take place in Taiwan and the whole island will become a sea of fire — a hell on Earth. Economic activity will stop, thousands of refugees will flee to the sea, and lives will be destroyed. This dystopian future can be prevented if Taipei and Beijing return to the table and give peace a chance.
